Tuesday, 17 August 2010

US/Israel war against Iran imminent?

Iran is a country which has had cultural ties with India for a long time. It's also the 3rd largest oil reserve in the world.

Of late there have been a number of articles being written on the possibility of a US/Israel war against Iran. The bone of contention is Iran's nuclear program, which Iran concedes is for energy purposes. US, Israel and other countries think not. They feel that Iran is in the process of building a nuclear bomb. 

Other than to maintain the dominant position in the middle east and some strategic reasons, the articles give reasons to justify a preemptive strike on Iran. These are:
  1. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, then that will be a blow to the nuclear nonproliferation effort.
  2. The U.N and International Law will be undermined, because Iran has signed the NPT. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, that would be a violation of the treaty.
Both of the reasons are valid only if Iran does have or acquires nuclear weapons. There is no proof that Iran has any. Iran has claimed that all its uranium enrichment needs are for civil purposes.

When Turkey and Brazil brokered a deal with Iran which met the requirements of the UN security council to prevent sanctions, it was greeted with skepticism. The weeks following that saw sanctions from the US, UN and the European Union.

While all this was going on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, talks of which have been going on for decades (since 1990), was caught in the crossfire. Pakistan signed the deal with Iran in June. The US first said that it was OK with  Pakistan's deal on the pipeline and then changed its statement, saying "new sanctions on Iran can impact Pakistan." India is currently not talking about the pipeline.

But coming back to the arguments presented in the articles. Regarding non proliferation. Who has the majority of the nuclear weapons in the world and in the middle east region? Which countries are not part of the NPT but possess nuclear weapons? Where is the effort to disarm these states?

As far as violating International Law and undermining UN is concerned, a preemptive strike itself is against International Law (under Article 2 of the UN charter) and would undermine UN (which ostensibly doesn't want war).

The articles fail to assess the impact such a war will have on the people of Iran and the soldiers who will fight. Another war will only lead to more innocent losing their lives. More suffering. More tragedies.

We can just hope that it doesn't happen.
"War is Peace" - 1984, George Orwell


Rake said...

In the words of Megadeth ->